2019 Academy Award Predictions
Best Picture
In the lead up to the Academy Awards, the entire season has been dominated by a few films. I think Roma and Green Book are the two films that have a shot at taking home the big prize this year. Overall, this is a hopelessly weak year for nominations. Roma is the only film that I even view as worthy of winning best picture. Green Book is good, but I don’t know how much it really distinguished itself. I liked it, but it never once was blown away by it in any capacity save for acting. I think The Favourite is also a solid film, very worthy of a Best Picture nomination, but there is no way it walks away with this award. I’m happy it won the BAFTA, but that makes a lot of sense for the British Academy to award the British film its highest honor. I love A Star is Born, but it has no momentum going into this Sunday. Black Panther is a solid film with a unique message for a superhero movie, but the actual story and the CGI is rough around the edges. Overall it should just be happy with a nomination, but if there was to be an upset because of the way the votes are counted, I could see Black Panther actually pulling it out because of a lot of second and third places on the ballots. BlacKkKlansman is a totally fine movie, great score, but it was the least Spike Lee movie I have seen from Spike Lee. Vice was very divisive and I am very much in the “It’s okay” camp, so I don’t see how this has a shot here. Lastly Bohemian Rhapsody, one of my favorites from last year, has no business being on this list. It is a movie with awesome songs and an uninspired story, the entire film is carried on Rami Malek’s back.
Prediction: Roma
Should: Roma
Leading Actor
Rami Malek is going to win his first Oscar on Sunday night. He has won every major award he’s been nominated for, other than the BFCA Christian Bale won, but there is little to no overlap in the voting pool there. I have yet to see At Eternity’s Gate, so I can’t speak to Willem Dafoe’s performance but this year is a phenomenal year for leading actors. Malek and Bale are both doing impressions of high profile celebrities, Viggo played the New York City Italian bursting at the seams with charisma and making the movie, and Bradley Cooper crafted an original character and created the entire life story. He didn’t lip sync his songs, he went up on stage and sang rock songs. If I had a ballot, I would have to go with Cooper, as much as I love Malek, I wouldn’t be able to overlook Cooper’s accomplishments.
Prediction: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
If I have a ballot: Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Leading Actress
This is one of the categories I have seen the least in. I missed out on Can You Ever Forgive Me? and The Wife, but this is Glenn Close’s Oscar to lose. Just like Malek, she has won about every award. I think Lady Gaga also absolutely killed it in A Star Is Born, to go from almost no acting experience to the emotional whirlwind performance is something that has been flying under the radar. Olivia Coleman was easily my favorite part of The Favourite, but personally I don’t understand her being categorized as leading actress. I viewed Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz as the leads with Coleman supporting, I don’t know if members of The Academy feel the same, but if they do that hurts her chances. Yalitza Aparicio was a welcome surprise nomination, she wasn’t getting a lot of credit throughout the awards season, and deserved some here. She just couldn’t outshine her director Cuaron to make herself a real contender here.
Prediction: Glenn Close, The Wife
If I have a ballot: Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali already won this award. He had a lead role in a film and Universal convinced The Academy it was a supporting role. I was really happy to see Adam Driver and Sam Elliot get recognized, as neither got any attention throughout the season. I think Driver had one of his weaker roles in recent years but I am happy to see him get a nomination. I loved Sam Elliot in A Star Is Born, his character added so much heart to the film and gave it a better sense of direction. Sam Rockwell is a heads-cratcher, he was great as the overly dumb George W. Bush impersonation, but there were definitely stronger performances throughout the year. Again, didn’t see Can You Ever Forgive Me? but I have loved watching Richard E. Grant’s pure joy about the nomination.
Prediction: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
If I have a ballot: Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born
*Side Note - I just now realized I gave these first three acting awards “If I have a ballot” to A Star Is Born. I didn’t particularly care this strongly for the movie, and there are plenty of performances I would say are stronger but they weren’t nominated. Just can’t believe I hadn’t realized how I was putting this for A Star Is Born, and I found it interesting.
Supporting Actress
Overall I am not very enthused by this category. There are plenty of other performances I preferred over the ones that were nominated. Personally, I think Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz had the best performances in this category, but I viewed them as the leads of The Favourite. If I could switch them and Olivia Coleman, I would probably have voted for The Favourite in both categories, but as it stands I just can’t get over the fact they are considered supporting. The two of them have not won very many awards, except again for a BAFTA which is not very surprising considering it was a British film, and Regina King was not nominated. Regina King will probably walk away with this award, and I think the most telling sign was Emily Blunts win of the SAG award. Regina King has won most of these awards, and if Amy Adams, Emma Stone, and Rachel Weisz can’t pick up the award voted on by peers in the industry without King present, I think it is telling of how they don’t have the votes behind them. Marina de Tavira was also a pleasant nomination, but she has a lower chance than any of the other nominees. I wouldn’t be too shocked if King didn’t win, so keep an eye out for an upset in this category.
Prediction: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
If I have a ballot: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Director
This is hardly a race, Alfonso Cuaron has it in the bag. He was the star of the film, through his direction and camerawork, so much of the story unfolds on the technical side and that really lets him shine. I love that Pawel Pawlikowsi was nominated for Cold War, he killed it in that movie. It’s cool that Spike Lee was nominated, but it feels more retroactive for his influence on the industry throughout time. Yorgos Lanthimos needed a nomination here for his phenomenal work on The Favourite, with his style being imbued in this movie despite the screenplay not coming from him unlike his past few films. Adam McKay was a choice that I found odd, so I wouldn’t count on him having a shot at winning.
Prediction: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
If I have a ballot: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Best Animated Feature
This is another award that has basically been decided, Spider-Man is going to win. Incredibles 2 is great, but it hasn’t reinvented the animation space in the way Spidey did. Ralph was fun, but overall it gave us the Disney crossovers. I haven’t heard of Mirai, and I can’t imagine all the Oscar voters have either. I know some people loved Isle of Dogs, but past the gorgeous stop motion I felt like it wasn’t all that great.
Prediction: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
If I have a ballot: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Original Screenplay
I’m not great at the screenplay categories, as I seldom read scripts. I don’t know if the scripts made these movies great or if it was everything else. I don’t have a lot to say. I have a gut feeling Green Book will take this over the other contender The Favourite. Roma has almost no screenplay buzz, and Vice and First Reformed are happy for their nominations. If Eighth Grade was nominated, I would probably say that because I hear different sides of Bo Burnham in every character of that movie, but he wasn’t nominated so oh well.
Prediction: Green Book
If I had a ballot: The Favourite
Adapted Screenplay
With the same issues of me not being familiar with the actual scripts, I am a little out of my element here. I think it will be going to BlacKkKlansman, as the Academy wants to give Spike Lee an Oscar, so they will do it here. I’ve heard Can You Ever Forgive Me? had a really strong screenplay, so maybe that could pull out the win. I would personally love a Beale Street or A Star Is Born win, but I highly doubt either has a shot.
Prediction: BlacKkKlansman
If I have a ballot: If Beale Street Could Talk
Cinematography
One of my favorite categories. I was blown away by all the nominees I’ve been able to see (release Never Look Away in Cincinnati you cowards). Unlike some other categories where I was very disappointed by the selection of nominees and thought there were a lot of snubs, I love all of these and just wish we had a couple more slots to throw in some of my other favorites like First Man, Mission Impossible: Fallout, and If Beale Street Could talk, to name a few. In the actual nominees, Roma once again will walk away with the award. The camera was the star of the movie, with its extended takes that would just move throughout a scene like a ghost wandering around just watching the family. I’m so glad we got some foreign films nominated here because it forced me out of my comfort zone to go watch Cold War. I normally don’t dig black-and-white movies or movies shot in a square for Instagram, but I really loved how it added a whole new layer to Cold War. It made it feel more authentic and at times militaristic like the time period. I loved how The Favourite was shot. It felt unlike anything I had ever seen before. It was so unsettling when they would go to the fish eye lens to show a super wide FOV, but it was so refreshing from what I’m used to seeing in movies every other week of the year. Lastly, I’ve been a fan of most of Matthew Libatique’s work, especially with Aronofsky. I was very disappointed by Venom, but A Star is Born had some really cool shots. I loved how all of the concerts sequences were shot, some feeling like a recorded performance and others pulling the camera close up to the actors to let them show how performing is affecting them emotionally. The shot of the sunset reflecting on the outside of the tour bus is also one of my favorites from last year.
Prediction: Roma
If I have a ballot: Roma
Documentary Feature
This year I watched more documentaries in theaters than I ever have before, and I my socks were blown off to last Tuesday. Yes, it is egregious that Won’t You Be My Neighbor and Three Identical Strangers were nominated (especially because TIS was in my Top 10 last year), but of the three docs I’ve seen they are all very deserving. Free Solo is a unique experience, probably one of the only documentaries I have seen twice, both in theaters, and I have a good feeling it will win. The sheer cinematic nature of it was mind bending, and the film they built around Alex Holland was just a wild time and changed my perception of what a documentary can do. Minding the Gap was a movie that took me back, I did not expect it to be as powerful as it was. It tackled domestic abuse in a way I have never seen, by letting you actually live in the world encompassing it. No dramatization, other than in the edit, but just watching these three kids grow up. RBG has a solid shot here, solely because RBG herself is red hot right now. The film was one of the more straight forward documentaries I’ve seen this year, but the subject matter is powerful and it was really cool to see just how much this little lady has done in her life. I want to watch Hale County on PBS before the show, but I don’t know if I will get around to it. I have not seen really any buzz for that or Of Fathers and Sons, so I’d consider those long shots. Between the three I talked about, I think it is almost a toss-up, with Minding the Gap just a step or two below the others.
Prediction: Free Solo
If I have a ballot: Free Solo
Foreign Language Film
I have only seen Roma and Cold War here (let me see Never Look Away in Cincinnati you cowards), while I don’t know if I missed Shoplifters or if it was never relased in Cincinnati, and Capernaum has a few showings a day, but I haven’t had a chance to bop down to the theater for that. This is an interesting race, I can see it going to either Cold War or Roma because both have the best director nominations. I wonder if Academy voters will give Roma best picture and then think “huh, well I am going to give Cold War the Foreign Film since I gave the Best Picture to Roma” or they could just pick Roma for both, or Roma for neither! That’s the fun of all this, we really don’t know how the voters think, but I would say its a safe bet to think Roma will walk away with this award. If we don’t overthink it, this is the simplest conclusion to draw.
Prediction: Roma
If I have a ballot: Cold War
Film Editing
Another category I am fond of most of the time. I’ll be honest, none of these really popped for me. I love a great kinetic edit, where it is just oozing with energy and style, over a more gentle and passive edit. None of the nominees really did it for me this year. Vice is kind of what I like, but it felt a little too unnatural, especially following the masterful edit in Adam McKay’s previous work with Hank Corwin on The Big Short. I have a gut feeling that the Academy will reward this vibrant edit for its style and not on what it added to the film. BlacKkKlansman and Green Book don’t have a lot of what I look for there, so hopefully the professionals see something there that doesn’t stand out to me, but I say those are the lowest likely to win. I think the job Yorgos Mavropsardis did on The Favourite was very complementary to the style of the script and camerawork, so I would like it if this won. It was a tight movie, and if it was any longer it may have overstayed its welcome and I think a lot of that trimming down to keep the pacing right probably happened in the editing room. Bohemian Rhapsody is an interesting beast, as some voters might vote for it because the overall movie was saved in the editing room after Brian Singer was fired in the middle of shooting. Clearly a lot of people think that movie is more prestigious than I do, so I would say it really between this and Vice for the award.
Prediction: Vice
If I have a ballot: The Favourite
Production Design
I’m very curious for this award. I think all of these are all of high quality in their own right for different reasons, so I think it will come down to wherever the wind is blowing on Sunday. I truly think it will go to The Favourite because The Academy has always loved their old English period pieces and the locations and sets they used were stunning. Roma did a great job of transporting us to the 1970s in Mexico. Mary Poppins did awesome with all of the colorful additions to the old London we all know. Black Panther created an entire city that felt real and lived in, and the set of the showdown arena was unlike anything I’ve ever seen on film before, so much so that it looked like it was bad CGI when it was actually all real. I adored First Man’s sets. Taking us back to the ‘60s and recreating all of NASA’s early days. I am just a huge sucker for anything Space related though, so I may be biased in my opinion. But isn’t that what an opinion is?
Prediction: The Favourite
If I have a ballot: First Man
Original Song
Shallow should win, Shallow will win. I think it’s hilarious Buster Scruggs was nominated. I love the Black Panther album so I’m not upset like others with the All the Star nomination. Mary Poppins had almost no memorable songs, so I’m shocked by this nomination. I’ll Fight was fine. Shallow though, come on.
Prediction: Shallow
If I have a ballot: Shallow
Original Score
This was a great year for film scores. Every nominee deserves to be here. I would have loved an Annihilation or First Man shoutout, but I can’t say they need to knock one particular nomination off. Even Mary Poppins Returns, whereas I thought the songs were forgettable, the score itself was wonderful and catchy. Isle of Dogs had an incredible score that carried so much of the movie. BlacKkKlansman had a very complimentary score with a very powerful emotion evoking theme it returned to time and time again. Black Panther made an iconic Marvel sound, which so few heroes in the MCU have. When we first visit Wakanda in Avengers and the Black Panther theme plays, it feels so iconic and royal and was chill-inducing. That is the sign of a powerful score considering we heard that theme for the first time just a few months prior. I think Beale Street will walk away with the gold this year though. The film was so quiet and subdued and just let the music carry us throughout the whole thing. It was evoking of the pure dreamlike visions we were experiencing before our eyes.
Prediction: If Beale Street Could Talk
If I have a ballot: If Beale Street Could Talk
Sound Editing
Sound Editing is the actual sound effects. It is the process of making explosions sound right or making new noises and recording them and engineering them in software to make them sound new and unique or exactly like what we expect them to. Now, most people don’t understand the difference of the two. I think A Quiet Place was a lot stronger at Sound Mixing but it wasn’t nominated there. I want it to win this, but I think First Man will win this one. The sounds of the spaceships rattling as they fight to escape the atmosphere is so visceral and key to the entire films success at portraying how dangerous and unnatural space travel was/is. Black Panther had sounds like most superhero movies, I don’t know if anything in this process was unique or a step above any other action movie. Honestly, Mission Impossible: Fallout should win just for the arm reload sounds of Henry Cavill in the trailer. Roma, again I didn’t really notice anything but that means they did a great job of adding all the natural sounds seamless to this day-in-the-life film. Bohemian Rhapsody, I think has a very real shot of winning this category because people are just confused on the difference between the two sound categories. “This is music movie so it must be great at Sound Editing” when again, I don’t know how much went into creating all the sounds, but it doesn’t seem like it was too different than most movies.
Prediction: First Man
If I have a ballot: A Quiet Place
Sound Mixing
Now this one, is how all the levels and everything were combined into the final product. How did the music balance with the dialogue or how loud was the explosions and so on. This is the one I think Bohemian deserves to win. I will talk so much smack about this film as a movie, but as an experience in the theater it was one of my favorites of the year. I felt like I was really at a concert and every time Queen took the stage I was having my ears blown out and was grinning ear-to-ear. I think A Star Is Born could also walk away with this award because again it handled the live music integration seamlessly. Roma did good, but this was again a thankless job that is best when unnoticed. First Man did great at all of this and the moon landing scene alone made it worthy of a nomination here. Black Panther, again, don’t know how much better it was than every other action or Marvel movie, but sure, glad it got nominated.
Prediction: Bohemian Rhapsody
If I have a ballot: First Man
Makeup and Hairstyling
I know so much about both of these, so my expert opinion is that Vice will win because that’s like everything else I’ve read online. The make-up to make Margot Robbie be all warty and gross in Queen of Scots was good, but the transformation of Christian Bale into Dick Cheney will win. Border looked phenomenal in this department as well, but when MoviePass was begging people to see the movie for free, you know literally no one saw it.
Prediction: Vice
If I have a ballot: Vice
Costume Design
This is a category I am not very informed on. I just go, “looks neat” and move on. This is where Marvel will win with Black Panther though, as the entire look they created with the costuming was incredible. I loved Mary Poppins Returns costuming as well, a lot of really fun and unique costumes throughout the film. Buster Scruggs was a nice little addition, it all felt authentic from the Western times. You never know if The Favourite or Mary Queen of Scots could pull out the win here because of their big ole England aesthetic that The Academy traditionally loves so very much.
Prediction: Black Panther
If I have a ballot: Mary Poppins Returns
Visual Effects
This was always my category when I was younger because it is where all the movies I liked were, and that is still partly true. I love the variety offered here, with Avengers and Solo being that big blockbuster movie, Ready Player One introducing us to a whole in-movie virtual world, Christopher Robin with the character’s really integrated into the real world, and First Man with the seemeless “invisible” CGI. I am predicting with my heart on this one, and saying Ready Player One. Having watched it again recently, I still am drawn to the style they chose for the Oasis and love the game-like feel it has. I think Avengers also has a real shot because my lord Thanos is the best CGI character we have ever seen on screen up to this point. The detail on his skin, where you can see the goosebumps where he has little bits of arm hair, gosh it took me by surprise.
Prediction: Ready Player One
If I have a ballot: Avengers: Infinity War
Animated Short
In what is now becoming a favorite time of year, is going and watching all the Oscar nominated animated and live-action shorts. The animated bunch this year is pretty heartwarming. I really loved Animal Behavior, even though every one else online seems to hate how dumb it was, I was the perfect audience for that short. Especially after all the dark, heavy-handed live action ones, this was a nice change of pace. Bao will probably win because it is Pixar and it is the one everyone has actually seen, but it is also really good. Sometimes the Pixar short wins and it isn’t that great, but Bao was actually really heartfelt and makes me cry every time I see it. Late Afternoon was a great portrayal of Alzheimer’s Disease and made me cry as well. One Small Step was really sweet and I dug the animation of it. Weekends was a cool look at what it is like to be a child of a divorced home, and the ups and downs of it, and it has a banging soundtrack.
Prediction: Bao
If I have a ballot: Animal Behavior
Live Action Short
What in the world is wrong with people? I guess to get nominated for an Oscar these days you just gotta make a kid do one of three things: 1. Get Kidnapped. 2. Kill someone. 3. Get Killed. Four of these nominees had at least one of these things in them. Like yeah, I would have probably liked them all individually a lot more than if I saw them back-to-back. That’s why I am voting for Marguerite, because it was a sweet little short film that warmed my heart, but I do want to give a shout out to Mother (or Madre), because that film was gripping with suspense and masterful and I bet had the lowest production budget. But I also want to particular say that please don’t see Detainment, it has no reason to exist and adds nothing useful and has nothing to say to a true story, and it is just terrible.
Prediction: Marguerite
If I have a ballot: Madre (Mother)
Documentary Short
Wow, you’re still here. Even I checked out an hour ago. How are you doing? Any fun plans for The Oscars? Well I don’t have anything to say about these set of short films because I ran out of time to watch them. I think I found all of them either on YouTube/Vimeo/Hulu/Netflix, so if you really care, you can go check them out there. I’ve heard Black Sheep is going to win in all my research towards making predictions, so I guess look for that one. Who knows what will actually happen though, lord knows hardly anyone even gets through the other shorts but a short documentary? Woof.
Prediction: Black Sheep
If I have a ballot: Eenie Meanie Minee Moe…