The Official Jack Oscar Predictions 2020

Welcome back everyone. It’s the most exciting time of the year to be a movie fan. We have all gone out and seen the best picture nominees and now comes the games. Who will win? Not my hands after typing this because I had to dust off my keyboard its been so long since I’ve written something big, or small. I won’t know til I write this. I’m not talking about any snubs or anything in here, other than if they pertain to a prediction on another category, so don’t look for any opinions on what does and doesn’t belong here. I’m going to make predictions based on the read of the entire awards season so far and of course a little bit of my own heart. This year has some damn near locks, but plenty of room for surprises and without further ado let’s get into it. I guess ado wasn’t the right word to use there, because I think the intro is an important part of this. So without further important information, let’s get started.

Best Picture

THE BIG KAUHNA RIGHT OFF THE BAT! Whoa. What a totally safe and cowardly pick for Best Picture. It’s just hard to deny that anything can stop this late game juggernaut of 1917. It is a masterclass in the technical aspects of filmmaking, it totally encapsulates the emotion and struggle of the first World War in under two hours, and it has a grounded emotional story about two soldiers. Now look, I have seen quite a bit of blowback on the movie, and with the Oscar’s ballot voting we could see that come in to play. The argument to that though, is just how it has snagged up almost all of the other big award indicators like the BAFTA and the PGA and DGA, so most likely 1917 has it in the bag. However, I do think we could see another huge mix-up like we did last year with Green Book. And that’s where the game is very interesting. I truly believe all of the nominated films have a fair shake at grabbing the night’s top honor.

Parasite seems to be the most poised to come out and win. It has been a force to reckon with since it won the Palm d’Or at Cannes. It has snowballed throughout the entire season. Everyone in Hollywood is excited to see the cast and Bong Joon Ho and I don’t know a single person that has seen it that thinks it is flat out bad or unoriginal. That fares well for the preferential voting, because Parasite is almost guaranteed to be high up in the top 4 for all of those who have seen it. It being a foreign is still the major hurdle here though. You know how many old white dudes are still in their nursing homes that couldn’t watch this movie because their cataracts makes it so they can’t read the subtitles? Me neither, but I’m sure it’s a disappointing amount. To think the entire Academy doesn’t have a prejudice above foreign film is being naïve and we would be so lucky if this film was able to overcome these judgements to win Best Picture.

Time for some quick little notes on other films. Marriage Story, The Irishman, and Little Women have seemed to kind of fizzle as the season has gone on, even Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood to an extent. The Irishman just isn’t Scorsese’s best film, and is really long that I’m sure a lot of the Academy just don’t bother with it, and give it the respect it deserves. Marriage Story seemed to rise and gain steam until it’s Netflix launch and then it’s awards prospects have been taken away from it just because people seem to start latching on to a few movies. I don’t think this has anything to do with them being Netflix releases, just unlucky in how that isn’t what the Academy was feeling this year I guess. Little Women is weird, everyone seems to love and adore the movie, yet they all got so caught up in Greta Gerwig not being nominated for director that they just stopped championing the movie for it’s plethora of other nominations. There’s an article making the rounds where a dude mentions “I couldn’t follow the timeline skips” and everyone is knocking him for it. I mean, I read it as someone overreacting and trying to grab headlines, but I think the sentiment isn’t crazy. I was genuinely very confused for the first few back and forth time skips. Especially when it came to the younger actresses, I was never sure what their ages were supposed to be because they looked the same age throughout, they should have noticeably aged 7 years rather than still looking 14 after 7 years. Obviously I got over it and fell in love with the movie, and I think it’s crazy to go all 2 hours and never get it, but I’m sure some people didn’t jive with it and won’t vote Little Women too high because of it. OUATIH is one that for sure has a solid shot, but it just hasn’t snagged up a single major award indicative of a big win on Oscar night. I would be ecstatic to see Tarantino win for a movie I love for much, but it just doesn’t seem to be his year. The voting of course plays into this again, I’ve seen a segment of people who just really did not dig the lack of plot this movie had and I’m sure they will rate it low, dragging down the people who pit it up on the top.

Of course we still have a few to talk about, Joker, Jojo Rabbit and Ford v Ferrari. I think these 3 are also some real dark horses for Best Picture. Ford v Ferrari seems like crazy talk to me, but it is so universally beloved that I think it could swing into the top after swimming in a land of 3s and 4s on those ballots. A lot of the movies this year are pretty divisive, as art can be; but, FvF is the perfect cinematic experience about a cool true story with some solid acting and fun races. I wouldn’t count this flick out. Joker of course made a billion dollars and that means it crossed the biggest hurdle… People actually saw it. It’s impossible to make the whole voting body watch everything nominated, but this one probably had the most natural viewers going into the nominations. It was very divisive, which holds it back. But never doubt the pure numbers. Lastly Jojo Rabbit seems to have gained some steam after nominations. It has been winning a lot of screenplay awards and just gained an upswell in support at the peak of voting, so I think if we see a repeat of The Green Book out of left field pick, this is the one to take it.

Prediction: 1917

Lead Actor

Yeesh, that first one took a while, but I think that’s the longest of the day. Like Joaquin has this in the bag. I think the bigger question here is what is the room going to be like during his speech? Will it be awkward and self reflective of this destructive industry or will it be cheery and happy for a social cause like save animals? Really depends on what topic he touches on to be honest. Personally I’d love to see Adam Driver win for Kylo Ren because the way that they had Kylo transform into Ben… wait… he’s nominated for Marriage Story? Oh that makes more sense because I was reaching for straws on that. Seriously, Driver has been delivering knockout performances for the last few years and this is his best one yet. The subtle situational rage that has built up in his character while maintaining the passion for his relationship to his son is quite incredible. Leo also did great as Rick Dalton, but he’s not winning. Let’s move on to another locked acting category. Oh wait that’s all of them.

Prediction: Joaquin Pheonix

Lead Actress

Renee Zellweger is winning for Judy for some reason. I mean shes great in the film, but I again think Marriage Story knocked it out of the part with Scarlett Johansson delivering the best performance in her career. Next to Jojo Rabbit. Charlize and Saoirse also did great, but I don’t look back and think “wow that deserves an award.” I take it back, as I typed that I thought about the line Saoirse says to her mother in Little Women about wanting to feel love and now I’m tearing up again. Well Renee is winning, moving on.

Prediction: Renee Zellweger

Supporting Actor

Brad Pitt’s body wins. I totally agree with this pick from The Academy. I’m sure it was hard for this dude to look hot and act cool and overall not care a whole lot of what anyone thought of him. I loved every second he was on screen so I’ll happily see him win. I think it would be cool to see Pacino win, as he does so much crap nowadays that we should award him for actually killing it in The Irishman. I bet Tom Hanks was awesome, but I missed that movie. And Hopkins of course was incredible in The Two Popes. Like only two incredible actors with a great script could make that movie watchable, and it was enthralling.

Prediction: Brad Pitt

Supporting Actress

Laura Dern wins. Marriage Story gets something, thank God. I don’t exactly understand why, past the one monologue she has, but I guess we award that these days. Compared to Scarlett in Jojo who is this constant presence throughout the film to help swell into the emotional climax of the movie that only lands so much because of the incredibly touching performance by Johansson. I’m happy Florence Pugh got nominated, deserving. I didn’t see Richard Jewell so no comment. Margot Robbie in Bombshell also being overlooked. She delivers a heart wrenching performance that’s needed to help ground the movie and solidify the antagonist of the movie.

Prediction: Laura Dern

Director

This is another category that is looking like it’s certain, but also totally not. Sam Mendes has been winning a lot. But everyone still feels like the Academy might split the honors of Best Picture and Director between 1917 and Parasite. So be prepared for Bong to win and 1917 win Best Picture, or Sam to win and Parasite getting BP. I wouldn’t count out Tarantino here either, he seems to again just be gliding through underneath all the buzz. I’ve seen a few bold prediction of Phillips but I don’t see that happening, and then Scorsese just hasn’t gotten any of that sweet nasty award love this year so I don’t expect any different Oscar Sunday. So I’m going safe and predicting Sam Mendes

Prediction: Sam Mendes

Animated Feature

This one is fascinating. I would immediately say Toy Story 4, but the lack of Frozen II shows to me the Academy isn’t feeling Disney this year. Missing Link and How to Train Your Dragon are both probably great movies, but they aren’t winning. I Lost My Body and Klause, the Netflix one’s seem to be the main contenders here. Klause has been winning a bunch of these awards, but I’m predicting I Lost My Body because it’s been a while since a straight adult oriented movie has won the animated category.

Prediction: I Lost My Body

Adapted Screenplay

As much as I would love Greta Gerwig to get her big win here, I’m thinking Taika Waititi is hauling some gold home with him. Jojo Rabbit just toes the line of comedy and tragedy with the every so hard subject of Nazism. The Irishman just isn’t getting love, and I’ve heard Joker’s script changed every day on set, so those aren’t winning. The Two Popes is out here making me love some Popeage but I don’t see it winning. So let’s go Jojo!

Prediction: Jojo Rabbit

Original Screenplay

It’s a tough one here. I gotta shoutout my homie Rian Johnson here for Knives Out, what an awesome surprise and I’m juiced he got nominated. The winner here will likely be Parasite. The other one to look out for is Hollywood, as QT wasn’t even eligible for the Writer’s Guild Award, so we don’t have any great overlap on the voting bodies anytime these two have gone up against each other. Parasite did win the BAFTA though, so that’s why I’m giving it the edge. I would also think Marriage Story should 100% be in this race, but it just hasn’t gotten anything other than the Spirit Award.

Prediction: Parasite

Cinematography

I have a soft spot here. So many great nominees and so many I wish could also have been nominated. But to think anyone is stealing that trophy from my boi Deakins, then you are nuts. 1917 is guaranteed the win.

Prediction: 1917

Documentary Feature

American Factory. Bruh, I didn’t watch any of these. I just didn’t get in a big movie vibe this year to go out of my way and watch any so this is what I’ve heard the most rumblings about.

Prediction: American Factory

International Film

Parasite going to win here. If it doesn’t then it will be Pain and Glory. If Parasite doesn’t win here, then expect big things in the other big categories. The Academy might want to share the love, so they’d award the less popular international film to greater favor the one that is nominated in plenty of other categories.

Prediction: Parasite

Film Editing

A really cool set of nominees this year. I am really unsure of what to fully think. I say Parasite. It has almost a rhythm to it as we have to read through the movie, so the editing just helps us bounce along from one scene to the next and keeps us gripped to our seats from beginning to end. I’d say look out for Ford v Ferrari though because it balances to high kinetic racing scenes to the rest of the story pretty well. It might be the most obvious editing in the bunch and that can play to its favor.

Prediction: Parasite

Sound Editing

The Academy doesn’t know the difference between mixing and editing, so there is no point to predict different movies. The blanket easy choice is 1917 here. I would love it if Star Wars won because I’m still always blown away by how they create the sound of a different world in those movies.

Prediction: 1917

Sound Mixing

1917. Here I would love Ford v Ferrari to win, but I definitely think 1917 is very deserving of the ward as well. I’m just a fan of the best picture movie not winning a lot of other awards so I would love to see awards spread across a lot of movies.

Prediction: 1917

Production Design

This is one of the other tough ones to predict. I’m personally going with Parasite here because they are really hammering home in the awards push that they built these sets from the ground up for this movie to totally fit within the themes of climbing stairs and concealment and all that nonsense. I mean that and on top of the film just has such a distinct feel. 1917 is another one that is very impressive, stitching together all of these outdoor locations and retrofitting them to fit in the trenches is cool. Hollywood is the other looking to get the dub here, the recreation of the 1960s is splendid and perfectly executed.

Prediction: Parasite

Original Score

Joker is going to walk away with this one. It’s been winning all of them leading up to the night. Star Wars was cool, but not the best of the Saga. I don’t really remember Little Women or Marriage Story’s score. 1917 was impeccable, and the way it would swell with the most intense moments of the movie brought tears to my eyes, but it just doesn’t have the same emotional through line and connectivity that Joker does. Joker doesn’t work as a movie without that score.

Prediction: Joker

Original Song

I would have said Frozen II has got this in bag, lock it up with the key, swallow the key, and take it to the bank and pray they don’t ask for the key; but, the lack of Animated Feature nomination for Frozen II is telling me that Mr. Oscar isn’t looking too kindly at this movie. That’s why I’m going with I’m Gonna Love Me Again from Rocketman. Elton John wrote a very fun and cool song for his own movie and I would be thrilled to see him.

Prediction: I’m Gonna Love Me Again - Rocketman

Makeup and Hair

The whole reason anyone cared about Bombshell is because we were all like “Whoa that’s Megyn Kelly not Charlize Theron.” But it is Charlize Theron. I know. Crazy, right? Judy and 1917 also had solid showings here. The only other possible contender against Bombshell is Joker. I know film Twitter freaks out because he dyes his hair green without bleaching it first, but like the hair looks good in the movie and the makeup does too, so it’s got a shot. And by has a shot, I mean not at all because Bombshell has got this in the bag, lock it up with a key.

Prediction: Bombshell

Costume Design

This category is one I have been performing mental gymnastics trying to predict. I can’t wrap my head around it. It’s like trying to fit the whole end of a burrito in my mouth. I’m predicting Little Women. Part of this is me just voting with my heart, and wanting this film to get something, and the other part is me seeing The Academy out there always choosing period pieces. The only problem is that literally every single nominee is technically a period piece. I just don’t see The Irishman winning when stacked up against these other ones. Jojo Rabbit has some great costumes, and they contribute a lot to the story itself, but do they want to award swastika riddled costumes? I think that’s a weird way to look at it personally, but if someone says they could never understand the timelines of Little Women after 2 hours of it, then I can’t trust The Academy to know up from down. Then we have Joker and Hollywood. If I had a vote, it would be for one of these. The Joker purple suit has always been iconic, but this interpretation of it has skyrocketed to the stratosphere; meanwhile, Hollywood took all these normal civilian clothes and made them iconic already. Rick Dalton, Cliff Booth, and Sharon Tate’s outfits are all instantly recognizable and that’s a tough feat to pull off with just normal clothes. Not to mention all the other characters, and the costumes made for the TV Shows and movies within the movie. Hollywood has the sheer number of costumes, and the iconic factor so I would love a big win here.

Prediction: Little Women

Visual Effects

I’m 100% voting with my heart here. I want Avengers Endgame to get an award. That’s my prediction. It is hard to define solely what Visual Effects mean at this point. Are they voting just based on what it looks like on screen? Because The Irishman’s overall effects looked flawless, but like when they were “30” in the movie, they still had wrinkles. It didn’t look like they used CGI, but they definitely didn’t fully convince me they were young dudes. And the technology they created to film and capture the data is absolutely insane, but are they voting on technology that is moving the industry forward? I don’t know. 1917 of course looks flawless, and a lot of time The Academy votes for the invisible Visual Effects. The Lion King is almost entirely CGI, and it looks photorealistic, but I just don’t see it winning for some reason. Star Wars also looks great, but I don’t know why, I just don’t feel it.

Prediction: Avengers: Endgame

Animated Short

I have only seen Kitbull and I cried and loved it so much, but I think Hair Love is walking away with this based on what I’ve seen of it.

Prediction: Hair Love

Documentary Short Subject

I haven’t seen anything here, but Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone just sounds like an intense look at some screwed up shit and a winner.

Prediction: Learning to Skaeboard in a Warzone

Live Action Short Film

Again, total crap shoot in the dark at the fan here but I’m predicting The Neighbor’s Window for no reason other than it sounds cool and like a winner.

Prediction: The Neighbor’s Window

There you have it everyone. Let me know your predictions and Tweet me @TheJackScholtz and let’s have nice chat about The Oscars, yeah?